The main aim of UMB4b is to evaluate and improve impact and risk assessment tools for establishing a scientifically based set of decision criteria. Impact and risk assessments rely on compiling relevant information of the source term and deposition, ecosystem transfer, biological uptake and effect. All these help to determine if exposure scenarios encountered under normal conditions or emergency situations (incidents/accidents/malevolent acts) represent a risk to humans and wildlife. CERAD then performs sensitivity analysis to define which factors contribute the most to the overall uncertainties, thus setting the priorities for the research in RA1-RA3.
UMB4b’s Western Norway case study explored the impacts a hypothetical nuclear accident in Sellafield in the UK would have for the west coast of Norway. This case study has been a cross-cutting activity that involved all CERAD partners and Research Areas. We have successfully coupled various models linking the source and release scenario to impacts on biota, man, and society). Models have been adapted to Norwegian conditions to predict the total impact of radioactive releases affecting Norwegian territories. Key factors contributing to major uncertainties in each model have been identified and quantified and the need for model improvement defined. Several of the models have also been applied to assess potential impact in Norway from the sunken Russian submarines K-27 at Novaya Zemlya and K-59 north of Murmansk.
CERAD researchers have coupled 8 models that link source and release scenarios to effects, in order to increase our understanding of the factors that contribute most to the uncertainties
Key publications
Liland, A., Lind, O.C., Bartnicki, J., Brown, J.E., Dyve, J.E., Iosjpe, M., Klein, H., Lin, Y., Simonsen, M., Strand, P., Thørring, H., Ytre-Eide, M.A., and Salbu, B. (2020). Using a chain of models to predict health and environmental impacts in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident at the Sellafield site. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 214–215, 106159.
Hosseini, A., I Amundsen, J Brown, M Dowdall, M Karcher, F Kauker et al. (2017). Impacts on the marine environment in the case of a hypothetical accident involving the recovery of the dumped Russian submarine K-27, based on dispersion of 137Cs. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 167, 170-179.
Bartnicki, J., Amundsen, I., Brown, J., Hosseini, A., Hov, O., Haakenstad, H., Klein, H., Lind, O.C., Salbu, B., Wendel, C.C.S., and Ytre-Eide, M.A. (2016). Atmospheric transport of radioactive debris to Norway in case of a hypothetical accident related to the recovery of the Russian submarine K-27. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 151, 404-416.
Brown, J., Amundsen, I., Bartnicki, J., Dowdall, M., Dyve, J., Hosseini, A., Klein, H., and Standring, W. (2016). Impacts on the terrestrial environment in case of a hypothetical accident involving the recovery of the dumped Russian submarine K-27. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 165, 1-12.
Brown, J., Hosseini, A., Karcher, M., Kauker, F., Dowdall, M., Schnur, R., and Strand, P. (2016). Derivation of risk indices and analysis of variablility for the management of incidents involving the transport of nuclear materials in the Northern Seas. Journal of Environmental Management, 171, 195-203.
