There is a lot of discussion about emergency preparedness in Norway, but far less willingness to take action. Preparing for crises is expensive, and requires investments that do not generate quick returns.
“Why on earth do we always have to be so different?” asks Per Martin Norheim-Martinsen, Professor and Dean at the Faculty of Landscape and Society at NMBU. In a new book, he has brought together experts from a wide range of fields to examine Norway’s overall preparedness, and the picture they paint is one of significant shortcomings.
Norheim-Martinsen compares Norway with countries such as Sweden and Finland. These neighbouring countries have enough public shelters for most of their populations, maintain grain reserves for times of crisis, and hold fuel stocks many times larger than Norway’s.
Three crises
Ruth Haug explains why global crises make it necessary for Norway to strengthen its preparedness. She is a professor of International Development Studies at NMBU and one of the contributors to the new book Total Preparedness.
“There are three ongoing crises in particular that have major implications for Norway’s food system,” says Haug.
The first is war and conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz closes, for example, and oil prices rise, fertiliser and food prices also increase on global markets. Norway feels these effects quickly: 60 per cent of the food consumed in the country is imported.
The second crisis is climate change. Haug expects a significant decline in agricultural production in several of the world’s major wheat-exporting regions, including the United States, Canada, Australia, Argentina and the European Union, due to drought. Reduced production drives up prices on global markets. According to Haug, the situation is further aggravated by the war in the Black Sea region, which disrupts wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine.
The third challenge she highlights is economic uncertainty linked to issues such as tariffs, control over raw materials and market concentration.
“In addition, many countries are facing severe hunger crises, and unfortunately humanitarian aid efforts are not sufficient to meet the need,” she says.
Stockpiles are not enough
According to Norheim-Martinsen, preparedness is ultimately about priorities. He points to food security as an example.
“Food preparedness is given too little priority,” he says.
And having food stored at home or maintaining grain stockpiles is not enough.
“Do we have what it takes to produce food over the long term? We need knowledge, expertise and investments in the means of production. It is also important for us to maintain patterns of settlement that allow people to live throughout the country. That means long supply lines, and we therefore need to think about which foods can be produced in other parts of Norway, not just in the eastern region,” says Norheim-Martinsen.
Calling for a civil preparedness boost
He argues that Norway needs a major strengthening of its civilian preparedness.
“There are areas where we have to invest in preventive measures that we may not make much use of in everyday life. Norway’s defence build-up is intended to raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP. But there is no equivalent plan for strengthening civilian preparedness. We need a civilian preparedness boost as well,” he says.
Norheim-Martinsen has recently taken part in several debates and events on preparedness during Arendalsuka, Norway’s largest political gathering.
“There is a great deal of discussion, but very little focus on the difficult priorities,” he says.
“In reality, preparedness is about two things: preventing unwanted events from happening, and being ready to manage them when they do happen. That requires a willingness to invest in measures that do not provide immediate returns.”
Farmers as a preparedness resource
The growing focus on preparedness is also bringing greater attention to agriculture, not only as a source of food.
Farmers have tractors, ploughs, chains, gritting equipment and extensive experience of working in difficult conditions, writes NMBU economics professor Espen Gaarder Haug in an opinion piece for NRK Ytring.
“The farmer serves as a practical all-purpose preparedness resource. Quite often, it is a local farmer who ensures that ambulances, home-care services, school buses and other essential services can get through,” he writes.
Not attractive enough
This means that the long-standing challenge of recruiting people into farming has implications beyond food production.
“Although recruitment to farming has improved somewhat, attracting enough people to the profession has been a challenge,” says Ruth Haug.
“The best food preparedness we can have, alongside our fisheries, is a vibrant agricultural sector. We need the expertise, the machinery, the seed stock and farmland that remains in production. We need a thriving agriculture sector across the whole country,” she says.
Reference: Per Martin Norheim-Martinsen (ed.): Totalberedskap [Total Preparedness]. Gyldendal, 2026, ISBN 9788205622258.