Social Protection and Household Composition: A Panel Data Analysis of Tigrai, northern Ethiopia

Abstract of the Paper

Although development intervention programs can have far-reaching impacts beyond their stated objective, there have been few careful studies of unintended outcomes of such programs. This study assesses the role of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on household size and dependency ratio using the Difference-in-Difference (DiD) method based on panel data from four rounds over 12 years collected in Tigrai, northern Ethiopia. Results show that member households in the public works component of the PSNP have maintained a larger household size than their counterparts outside the PSNP. Member households also had a larger dependency ratio than their counterparts outside the PSNP five years after the program started (2005-2010). With the graduation of members and the downscaling of the program in the period 2010-2015, the effects on household size and dependency ratio were reduced and vanished.