In her PhD, Joyce Machado Nunes Romeiro has investigated how climate change could double bark beetle damage in Norway and suggests adaptive forest management for economic and ecological benefits.
In her PhD thesis, Joyce Machado Nunes Romeiro has explored the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, specifically focusing on the damage caused by the European spruce bark beetle in Norway. Her results show that that adapting forest management strategies could economically benefit forest owners and enhance forest resilience.
Increased risks from climate change
Although natural forest disturbances cause damage and death to trees, they also play an important role in nutrient recycling and the maintenance of biogeochemical cycles. However, the damages can become too much.
“Forests worldwide are increasingly threatened by wind damages, wildfires, droughts, and insect outbreaks due to climate change,” Romeiro explains.
She has delved into the impact of climate change on natural forest disturbances, with a particular emphasis on the European spruce bark beetle and necessary adaptations in forest management.
Modeling disturbances
The thesis comprises three papers. The first provides a review of natural disturbances in European forests and their links to climate change. It also assesses the applicability of 39 disturbance models for large-scale forest management planning. The second paper applies and evaluates a model estimating bark beetle damage in Norway under current and future climates. The third paper explores how incorporating bark beetle damage into forest management can offer economic gains to forest owners.
Potential doubling of damage
The study reveals that the most important spruce-growing regions in Norway currently face a low risk of severe bark beetle damage. However, climate change could potentially double the damage caused by these insects.
“Old, low-density stands with a high proportion of Norway spruce trees may economically benefit the most from shorter rotation lengths,” Romeiro says.
“Adopting more mixed stands can increase forest owners' benefits and support forest ecosystems' sustainability and resilience under climate change.”
More data on damage is needed
Romeiro’s thesis represents a pioneering effort in estimating the impact of bark beetle damage under climate change in Norway, highlighting the need for a systematic compilation of quantitative data on bark beetle damage. Such data could feed future models, enabling the examination of wind damage, droughts, and soil composition that can influence a tree’s vulnerability to bark beetles.
More holistic management
Romeiro calls for a holistic management perspective that considers other natural disturbances, crucial for developing effective measures to maintain the health, resilience, and productivity of forests in a changing climate.
“This broader perspective is essential for aligning forest management practices with the principles of climate-smart forestry,” she says.
Climate-smart forestry focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting forest management practices, and ensuring forest sustainability.
Joyce Machado Nunes Romeiro will defend her PhD thesis " Climate change impacts on natural forest disturbances: bark beetle damage potential and management adaptations" Friday 3 May, 2024. Trial lecture and public defense are open to all. Read more about the event here.